Steve Cohen continues the Aussies preview with the expected highlights for Friday.
The views represented in this article having nothing to do with those of the club policy or selection committee. They are based on an independent view of events over the 2007-8 season. Apologies to anyone left out or for whom the prediction proves to be harsh. The author would love to be proved wrong by a member who can do better than anyone expected. Good luck to all.
Whether people feature today depends a great deal on their results from Thursday. This review will cover only the new events in which heats are held.
Our Open Men's Boat crew Shane Bowler, Damon Hansen-Knarhoi, Andrew Kelly, Paul Long and Geoff Wilson start with Rounds 1, 2 & 3. Not one of the more flamboyant or fancied crews but Geoff has a way of bringing his crew to the boil when it counts. Conditions look like they are going to be flat on Lake Scarborough so a few of the Kings Cup Fours may be hard to beat.
Prediction: These guys will give it their all and I predict they will make it to the quarter finals but cut 'em some slack there are 6 rounds to get just that far.
James Cohen is our sole starter in the U/19 Ironman. Will need to build on his state title win. Has never made the Final of the Ironman. The big contest will be the handlers, 4 have been listed for the one competitor.
Prediction: Should make it to the Semi Final on Saturday how far he goes will be determined by how many other events and how hard he has to go.
The U/19 Surf Race is probably James Cohen's main event having finished in the top 10 for the past few years but remains without a medal.
Prediction: Always leads from the front, plays "catch me if you can" and sooner or later they won't.
In the Open Ironman we are represented by Ben Carrick, Simon Huitenga and Ben Walker. These are all first year Opens with Simon putting in an exceptional performance to get third at the States.
Prediction: These are colts and you just can't be sure but Simon Huitenga's form would indicate getting to the semi finals might not be out of his range.
In the Open Mixed Double Ski we have A team Kristian Hawkless & Lisa Oldenhoff (now 2 time Olympian in the Kayaks), the B team of Alison O'Toole and Ken Tomczak, the C team of Kate Forgione and Ashley Nesbit and the D team of Robbie and Julie Jenkinson.
Prediction: This has become a much more serious event over the past two or three years. There will be many rounds and, dare I say, the girls on average have put in more k's in the craft than the boys. The girls will drag a couple of the guys to a semi final.
One of the hottest event on the program is the Open Men's Surf Race where you can put up a good case for any one of about 20 of the starters to win it so getting from round to round is no dawdle. Ben Carrick, James Cohen, Tom Dowling, Brendan Doyle, Simon Huitenga, Duncan Jacobs, Chris Timms and Ben Walker are all entered.
Prediction: Tom is an unlikely starter and James's appearance will depend on U/19 commitments. Simon, Chris, James and possibly Ben will make it through to the semi on Saturday morning. From there its all arms, legs and a bit of luck through to the Sunday finals with Simon and Chris tipped to be there.
The Open Female Board Race is one of the events we looking forward to with anticipation. Alicia Marriott, Alison O'Toole and Lara Taylor are in the fray with Alicia second last year coming from behind.
Prediction: Alison and Lara will give it their best shot. For Alicia the start is critical as all the other competitors know she is the one to beat. If she gets away clean and clear hardware will be in the offing. What colour? Well I will be glued to the White, Red and Black cap that will be there at the finish.
The Open Female Surf Race sees Jess Cohen, Estelle Doney, Alicia Marriott, Alison O'Toole, Janelle Slattery and Lara Taylor entered. The bulk of these won't start as they have other priorities.
Prediction: Alicia was fifth in this event last year and is probably swimming better than then.
In the U/17 Female Surf Race we have Jess Cohen, Estelle Doney, Kate Dromey and Phoebe George. These girls are all honest triers but these events attract quality swimmers.
Prediction: Estelle Doney to make the final.
The U/17 Men's Surf Race see Tom Dowling, Scott Clayton, Jesse George and Josh Walker step up. Tom is the only one in this race with a chance of getting to the final finishing 6th last year.
Prediction: Tom Dowling to make the final, whether he medals will purely be determined by his speed across the bank on the way out. The final will be a quality field that will not be swum around once behind.
In the U/17 Ironwoman Jess Cohen, Estelle Doney, Kate Dromey and Phoebe George are entered. A couple are unlikely starters.
Prediction: Estelle fresh from her State Championship win will be the best chance to get to the semi's.
For the U/17 Ironman Tom Dowling, Scott Clayton, Jesse George and Josh Walker will attempt to get through what has been a tough event.
Prediction: Hard to see even Tom getting past the quarter finals.
The U/15 Female Surf Race sees Georgina Davies, Kia Walker, Alyse Kendall and Danielle Kirwan. This event has some serious swimmers.
Prediction: Would love to see one of these get past the heats but they will all struggle.
The U/15 Men's Surf Race has our biggest line up for us in an event with Theo Adcock, Will Dwyer, Jordan Haynes-Love, Tyler Itzstein, Mitchell Jenkinson, Zak Walker and Gene Williams. The bulk of these are U/14's aging up for the experience and what an experience it will be. Maybe for some a one swim experience.
Prediction: Gene Williams to go all the way to make the final and get his first taste of a Sunday final.
Our U/15 Men's Board Relay A team is Will Dwyer, Mitch Jenkinson and Zak Walker and the B team of Theo Adcock, Tyler Itzstein and Gene Williams.
Prediction: This will be a good experience for the lads and give them a real sense of the board speed they need to achieve to be seriously competitive on the big stage next year.
The U/15 Female Board Relay team is Georgina Davies, Danielle Kirwan and Kia Walker.
Prediction: Like the boys they will find out about the speed on boards required at this level.
In the U/15 Ironman Will Dwyer, Mitch Jenkinson, Zak Walker, Theo Adcock, Tyler Itzstein and Gene Williams will all find it pretty tough going.
Prediction: A good experience.
In the U/15 Ironwoman Georgina Davies, Danielle Kirwan and Kia Walker will find it hard going.
Prediction: A good experience.
The Open Women's 5 Person is Elizabeth Langdale, Rosie Langdale, Kim Lovett, Jae Moffatt and Janelle Slattery. Jeff Scott always produces a well-oiled team.
Prediction: Probably not quite enough experience to make the final, as that requires consistently low scores.
The Mixed Open 5 Person R &R team of Jess Cohen, Ashleigh Crabtree, Mark Holland, Neil Johnson, and Jeff Scott are a good mixture of youth and experience.
Prediction: In an event new to the program this year experience counts for a lot. Would be nice to make the final Saturday afternoon.
In the Open March Past the States form would indicate our Open team would struggle to make the final without a vast improvement. The U/23 team will make the final as it is likely to be a straight final but have not put together enough training sessions with everyone present to be a real threat but hopefully they may be inspired to put in a few hours for next year as it's a medal for the taking with a bit of work.
