Steve Cohen continues the Aussies preview with the expected highlights for Thursday.
The views represented in this article having nothing to do with those of the club policy or selection committee. They are based on an independent view of events over the 2007-8 season. Apologies to anyone left out or for whom the prediction proves to be harsh. The author would love to be proved wrong by a member who can do better than anyone expected. Good luck to all.
Today is the first really big day when competitor's, marshals and area managers have to keep their wits about them when it comes to event calls and marshalling. Event orders can be changed at any time for any reason so do not depend on the program. This is the day people notoriously miss events because they are not in tune with the requirements of being there quickly to marshal at the Aussies.
This is the first day of the Boat arenas that are south of Scarborough closer to Brighton road. The Reserve Boat crew of Simon Allison, Ryan Carmichael, Damien Kelly, Paul Lilleyman or John Leivers and swept by Grant Trew get to strut their stuff with the first three rounds being conducted during the day.
Prediction: The boys will enjoy rowing with Legend "Garbo" but hard to see them getting past the initial rounds.
This first water arena is situated right in front of the Scarborough surf club and the Grandstand. We are very light on in the numbers in this area and at the States on many occasions U/17's aged up to make up often winning teams. That is not a luxury we can justify at the Aussies, as the U/17 need to concentrate on their age group and also there is 5 arenas between the U/19 and U/17 men. The end result is few if any Under 19 teams.
James Cohen will have heats in the Board in amongst what is a team's day.
Prediction: Will stay in till Rick tells him "that's enough"
This opens with the Open Ski Relay heats with team A being Kristian Hawless, Robbie Jenkinson and Ashley Nesbit and team B being Ben Carrick, Simon Huitenga and Greg Mickle. It is hard to see either team getting past the heat but it will serve as a good nerve settler for some of the younger lads who have more pressing engagements later in the Championships.
Prediction: A settler without progression.
Next up is the Open Men's Board Relay with Ben Carrick, Simon Huitenga and James Cohen. Likely a choice will be made between this and the Ski Relay as to which event is used to open the account.
Prediction: A nice First Round experience at best.
The Heats of the Open Single Ski is next. There is usually upward of 25 heats. Expect a few less this year but the quality performers will still be here. Ben Carrick, Kristian Hawkless, Simon Huitenga, Ashley Nesbitt, Ken Tomczak, Ben Walker and Robbie Jenkinson are named starters but expect a few withdrawals.
Prediction: A few may progress through to the next round but in terms of Ski paddling these guys fall into to two clear groups - too young and too old.
The Restricted Surf Race usually features some of the biggest past and present names of surf swimming. Greg Mickle and Chris Timms are in and between them we have any conditions covered. If it's big, choppy and requires surf nous Micko will progress. If it's flatter and a swimmers race Timmsy will go through.
Prediction: Progression depends on the conditions but as it's a heat expect them both to get through. Final Friday afternoon.
The Open Men's Board Race will be an event with Simon Huitenga, Ben Walker and Ben Carrick the latter focusing on this as one of his main events.
Prediction: Ben Carrick and Simon Huitenga to progress to the next round.
Next event for us will be the Open Men's Surf Teams with the A being Ben Carrick, James Cohen, Simon Huitenga and Chris Timms and the B team being Tom Dowling, Jesse George, Ben Walker and Josh Walker. It's hard to see any of these teams starting as nearly all members have other events that are much higher priorities.
Prediction: The A team could make the final with it being held Friday afternoon.
Later that day is the heats of the Open Men's Rescue Tube Rescue with the A team of Timms, Cohen, Buchan and Simmonds and the B team of Huitenga, Carrick, Hawkless and Walker. These are both very good teams and each will be aspiring a position in the semi final later in the afternoon and then the final to be held on Saturday. The A team have medalled at the last two Aussies getting without the gold. The race has changed this year with the patients having to swim as part of the race so past results count for very little.
Prediction: Both teams to advance to the Final.
We move now to an arena where there were a number of teams put together for the States that are doubtful starters for the Aussies with athletes focussing on the specialities.
The ladies day begins with the Open Female and the U/19 Board Relays in which we are unlikely to start.
Next we get into one of the main events for City at the Championships the heat of the Open Ironwoman with Alicia Marriott, Alison O'Toole and Lara Taylor. All that can be said for Alicia is that this is the "Holy Grail" and she has now had the experience of running into the Amphitheatre to win the States so the sky is the limit her. Alison and Lara should both progress to the next round. The quarter finals are Friday morning, with the Semis Saturday afternoon and the Final midday Sunday.
Prediction: A maturer Alicia Marriott will leave no stone unturned for this one.
The next event of significance in this arena is the Open Women's Surf Race with Jessica Cohen, Estelle Doney, Jacinta Marriott, Alison O'Toole, Janelle Slattery, Lara Taylor and Alicia Marriott entered. The reality is some of these won't start, some will enjoy the swim but Alicia is the one we hope will get to the final and be there at the close finish. The Semi Final is Saturday with the Final a feature race on Sunday.
Prediction: Alicia to be there in the final on Sunday is swimming well but might struggle with the swimming specialists.
In the Open Women's Rescue Tube Rescue the A team is Estelle Doney, Lara Taylor, Kim Lovett and Janelle Slattery with the B team Jessica Cohen, Jae Moffatt, Bec Cohen and Rosie Langdale
Prediction: Nice to try but some of these have other priorities.
The arena is opposite the very Northern Scarborough Carpark.
Their first event is the Female Tube Race with Jess Cohen, Kate Dromey, Phoebe George and Estelle Doney entered. This will be a hard fought event as it begins with quarter finals indicating only the serious contenders have come from over east.
Prediction: Some haven't trained, some have other priorities and some wont be able to match it with the swimmers in the race. Estelle to make the semi Finals.
Next is the U/17 Tube Race with Scott Clayton, Tom Dowling, Jesse George and Josh Walker. As per the girls this will be tough.
Prediction: Tom Dowling to make the final the rest depends on his start across the bank because on his day he can match it with the best.
The U/17 Male Taplin qualified to be in this event through winning the State Championship but they face a bigger test here. Jesse George, Tom Dowling and Josh Walker will have to put in to make the final on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: May just scrape into the final if they all put in and don't get rattled if behind during the race.
The U/17 Female Surf Team H & F with Jess Cohen, Estelle Doney, Kate Dromey and Phoebe George may well have a crack depending on the commitments in other arenas. Should be a pleasant swim for all concerned.
Prediction: Should be very happy if they represent City in the Final later in the day.
The U/17 Male Surf Team H & F with Scott Clayton, Tom Dowling, Jesse George and Josh Walker will find this a bit tougher than their Gold medal performance at the States.
Prediction: Will struggle to make the final.
City has entered two teams in the U/17 Female Board Rescue with the A team being Jess Cohen and Estelle Doney and the B team of Kate Dromey and Phoebe George.
Prediction: The latter are unlikely to start and the former will need to improve sharply from the States to get through the rounds.
The U/17 Male Board Rescue teams are Tom Dowling with Jesse George and Scott Clayton with Josh Walker.
Prediction: A lot will depend on how the boys are holding up after a number of earlier races with Tom and Jesse to progress to at least the semi final stage.
We have two teams entered in the U/17 Ski Relay, a mixed event, with the A team of Tom Dowling, Jesse George and Josh Walker with the B team Estelle Doney, Kate Dromey and Phoebe George.
Prediction: The B team unlikely to start and the A team struggling to get through.
The under U/17 Female Board Race sees Jess Cohen, Estelle Doney, Kate Dromey and Phoebe George taking to the water.
Prediction: Hard to see them getting past the first round with none of them placing in the top 6 at the States.
The U/17 Male Board Race sees Ben Caley, Scott Clayton, Tom Dowling, Jesse George and Josh Walker giving it their best shot.
Prediction: As per the girls.
This is the furthest North of the Water arenas. Here is where some of our young guns and the clubs future stalwarts are going to get their first taste of the Aussies big time. From here the are inspired for future Aussies or they fall onto the too hard pile and fade away.
This arena start with U/15 Male Tube Race heats with Theo Adcock, Will Dwyer, Jordan Haynes-Love, Tyler Itzstein, Mitchell Jenkinson, Zak Walker and Gene Williams. All these will have a go but Gene W is the lad with the right mixture for this race.
Prediction: Gene to make the semi finals at least as long as he attacks the bank at the start.
Next are the U/15 Female Tube Race heats with Georgina Davies, Kia Walker and Danielle Kirwan. If States form is anything to go by these ladies should enjoy themselves.
Prediction: Will struggle to progress.
Our U/15 Male Cameron Relay surprised a few at the States with their Silver medal. Cody George, Zak Walker, Gene Williams and Theo Adcock will need to pull out all stops to make the final. These guys are young with nothing to loose and plenty of room for improvement. A lot will be on the shoulders of Zak Walkers board paddle, as Gene Williams will match it with the swimmers.
Prediction: The boys will get through to the Final late Friday afternoon.
Our U/15 Men's Surf Team squeaked a third at the States with Gene Williams, Mitchell Jenkinson, Zak Walker and Will Dwyer but the class in this field will be a whole lot better.
Prediction: Will struggle to make the final to be held later in the afternoon.
Our U/15 Female Surf Team of Georgina Davies, Alyse Kendall, Danielle Kirwan and Kia Walker will struggle in what is generally a pretty hot race.
Prediction: Will struggle to get through to the Final.
Our U/15 Men's Board Rescue boast three teams - A - Zak Walker and Gene Williams, B - Will Dwyer and Mitch Jenkinson and C - Jordan Haynes-Love and Tyler Itzstein. The event should be held around midday and the sea breeze will favour the stronger combinations.
Prediction: Zak Walker and Gene Williams to get through to the next round.
Our two U/15 Female Board Rescue teams are A - Georgina Davies with Kia Walker and B - Alyse Kendall and Danielle Kirwan.
Prediction: Both teams will struggle to get past the heats.
The U/15 Male Board Race will have Zak Walker, Gene Williams, Will Dwyer, Mitch Jenkinson, Jordan Haynes-Love and Tyler Itzstein all giving it their best shot.
Prediction: In a race that is all about the most mature and strongest bodies our boys will struggle.
In the U/15 Female Board Race Georgina Davies, Kia Walker, Alyse Kendall and Danielle Kirwan will learn a lot about the intensity that is required at this level and hopefully will enjoy themselves.
Prediction: Hard to see any of the girls progressing.
Our U/17 First Aid representatives are the State Silver Medallists Roshann Davies and Preston Kelly. Another well tutored Rik Lovett combination that could produce anything.
Prediction: A good first time experience but a medal is not out of the question.
Chris Timms may represent us in the Open Men's Surf Belt Heat and Q/F. Without doubt looking his fittest in years and a real medal chance.
Prediction: Makes the Final on Saturday afternoon, the race will be hot but he could squeak a medal.
Jae Moffat is entered in the Open Female Surf Belt Heat and Q/F and this is the first year of this event and some of the Nations strongest Female swimmers will contest this event.
Prediction: Jae will struggle to make the Final.
Tom Dowling will be our man in the U/17 Men's Surf Belt. This is the event that tests the heart as those last 20 meters seem to never end.
Prediction: Tom to make the semi final but as the wade is so critical it is hard to see him getting to the Final. Would love to be surprised.
The Beach arena begins with the Open Woman's 2km Beach Race with our own THREE-time winner Alison O'Toole going for her fourth straight title. The 2km Beach Races start at 7.30am and Alison has to be a pretty good thing she has the history, confidence and the form after only having one male beat her at the State Championships. This is a must watch event so get down and use this event as part of your warm up.
Prediction: The toughest lady on the sand to make herself a FOUR time consecutive winner of the same event and write herself a niche in Australian Surf Lifesaving history.
A dark horse exists in the U/19 2km Beach Race in Conor Fitzgerald fresh from his State Championship surprise win. His placing will all depend on tactics. He just needs to play follow the leader being no more than 5 metres behind with 50 meters to go and no one will have a faster finish having placed 2nd in the Beach Sprint at the States.
Prediction: The colt has all the makings of a medallist just will need to cover and hold his nerve for the withering sprint.
From there the beach goes into the Open Men's Beach Sprint heats and rounds 2 and 3 with our Fastest Man in The Land On the Sand stepping up to defend his title. Yes, Dean Scarff, along with Shane Buchan, Iain Buchan, Craig Simmonds and Brett Slocombe are entered. Probably fair to say Deano is in his prime and thanks to guru coach Leigh Buchan wasn't quite at his finest for the States leaving the sharpest edge to the biggest event.
Prediction: Takes these guys less to complete the race than it does me to type this line. I can make a mistake and correct but they don't have time. Deano to get to the final with Shane and Iain Buchan into the quarters and possibly semis.
The Open Female Beach Sprint has Heats, Rnd 1 and Q/F for Lauren Keightly, Rachel Kelly, Hannah McKenzie, Jessica Richards, Megan Slattery, Montanna Ardon and Amanda England. Some of the younger girls will us it as a warm up for the Under 19 event but Amanda is the real open deal.
Prediction: Amanda to make the Open Semi Finals
In the Dome will be the U/19 Male Flags H & S/F with Conor Fitzgerald who should be warmed after his 2 km run earlier in the day.
Prediction: A good learning experience for the young lad.
Next sees the parade of the core strength of the fabulous Leigh Buchan's running squad when our girls in the U/19 Female Flags strut their stuff with Amanda Buchan, Adie Hinkes, Rachel Kelly, Hannah McKenzie and Meaghan Slattery getting into the rough and tumble in the Dome.
Prediction: Adie finished 3rd last year in the Under 17 event and looks like our best shot at going the furthest. She will make the final and from there is "Heads Down" and scramble.
In the U/15 Male Flags Theodore Adcock, Cody George and Declan Manning will step into the Dome.
Prediction: Some of these will struggle.
In the U/15 Female Flags Amy Murphy, Emily Slattery, Jessica Hawkins, Gabrielle Murphy, Chantelle Green and Alyse Kendall will step up the big time. This should be a great learning experience for some of these girls giving them impetus for training next year.
Prediction: Emily Slattery and Amy Murphy likely to go the furthest.
